Top Five Countries by Genocide Risk

Sudan leads with the highest risk of genocide at 5.7%, followed by Ethiopia (5.1%), Guinea (4.5%), Somalia (3.8%), and Nigeria (3.2%). These countries represent the most critical areas of concern in sub-Saharan Africa as of 2024.

Risk Variation Across the Region

Risk percentages span from 0.0% to 5.7%, indicating significant variation in genocide risk across sub-Saharan African countries. The highest risk is over 19 times greater than the lowest observed risk, emphasizing the disparity in stability and security within the region.

Countries with Lowest Risk

Equatorial Guinea, Botswana, Lesotho, and The Gambia share the lowest genocide risk at 0.1% or lower, highlighting regions of relative stability and lower immediate concern for such atrocities.

Average Risk Assessment

Calculating the average risk across all countries will provide a broader view of the overall genocide risk level within sub-Saharan Africa, offering insights into regional stability.

Correlation between Geographical Proximity and Risk Levels

An analysis of countries sharing borders may reveal patterns of risk contagion or regional security dynamics, suggesting whether geographical proximity correlates with similar risk levels.

Overall Risk Level in Sub-Saharan Africa

The average genocide risk across sub-Saharan African countries is 1.63%, indicating a moderate level of concern at a regional scale. This average suggests that while there are countries with significantly higher risks, the region as a whole does not uniformly face high genocide risk levels.

High-Risk Countries and Geographical Proximity

The high-risk countries, with risks above the average of 1.63%, include Sudan, Ethiopia, Guinea, Somalia, Nigeria, Uganda, Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Republic of the Congo, Angola, Chad, Niger, Tanzania, Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. Notably, countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of the Congo, and Angola, along with others in the Great Lakes and West African regions, indicate a pattern where high-risk countries often share geographical proximity. This suggests regional factors significantly influence genocide risk levels.